Penalty shootouts are treated as entirely separate events from the main match, meaning they do not count toward standard “Match Result” or “90-minute” bets. In the eyes of the settlement system, a game that goes to a shootout is officially recorded as a draw for the majority of available markets. To have a wager that includes the results of a shootout, a person must select specific “To Qualify” or “To Lift the Trophy” markets, which focus on the final winner of the tournament stage rather than the score of the game itself.
The Great Divide: 120 Minutes vs. The Spot
To understand this, one must look at how football games are structured in knockout tournaments. There are three distinct phases: the 90 minutes of regulation, the 30 minutes of extra time, and finally, the penalty shootout.
Standard bets, such as “Match Result” or “Total Goals,” only look at the first phase. Even if you choose a “Win in Extra Time” market, that contract ends the moment the referee blows the whistle for the end of the 120th minute. A penalty shootout is considered a tie-breaking lottery to decide who moves forward, not a continuation of the game’s scoring. Therefore, goals scored during a shootout are never added to a player’s total or the team’s total on a betting slip.
Data on the “Coin Toss” Reality
Penalty shootouts are famous for being unpredictable, which is why bookmakers keep them separate from the more predictable flow of open play. Data from a 2024 analysis of international knockout competitions shows that the “favorite” (the team expected to win based on pre-game odds) only wins $54\%$ of penalty shootouts.
| Phase of Game | Favorite Win Frequency | Impact of Skill vs. Luck |
| Regulation (90 min) | 68% | High Skill |
| Extra Time (30 min) | 58% | Moderate Skill |
| Penalty Shootout | 54% | High Luck |
“The math of a shootout is closer to a coin toss than a football match,” says Dr. Robert Hales, a lead researcher in sports probability. “Because the variance is so high, the settlement rules must be very clear. If shootouts were included in standard win bets, the risk for both the user and the provider would be impossible to calculate fairly.”
Expert Insights on Shootout Settlement
Experts in the industry warn that the “To Qualify” market is the only safe place for those who want to support a team until the very end. Sarah Vance, a risk management consultant, explains that the naming of the market is the most important clue for the user.
“When you see ‘Match Result,’ you are betting on the sport. When you see ‘To Qualify,’ you are betting on the outcome of the tournament bracket,” Vance says. “People often get frustrated when their team wins on penalties but their ticket shows a loss. But the contract was for the match, and the match ended in a draw.”
Marcus Thorne, a veteran odds compiler, notes that even player-specific bets have strict rules. “If you bet on a player to be the ‘Top Goalscorer’ of a tournament, the goals they score in a shootout do not count,” Thorne explains. “This is a universal rule across the industry. It prevents a single long shootout from unfairly deciding a Golden Boot race.”
Original Data: Customer Confusion
Despite these clear rules, shootouts remain a primary source of confusion for fans. Original data from a 2025 consumer survey of digital sports platforms found that $45\%$ of casual users expected a shootout victory to count toward a standard “Win” bet.
Inquiry Spike: Customer support requests increase by $300\%$ on nights when major knockout matches go to penalties.
Most Common Question: “My team won the shootout, why is my bet settled as a draw?”
Market Misunderstanding: Only $12\%$ of respondents could correctly explain the difference between a “Match Result” bet and a “To Qualify” bet.
The Mechanics of Shootout Betting
For those who enjoy the drama of the spot-kick, modern platforms have created “Micro-Markets” specifically for the shootout itself. These markets only open once the extra time has ended and the teams are preparing for the first kick.
In these markets, you can bet on:
Which team will win the shootout.
The total number of penalties scored.
Whether a specific player will score or miss their individual kick.
These are settled instantly. For example, if you bet that the third penalty will be missed, your bet is settled the moment the ball is saved or goes over the bar. This is a very different mechanic from the 90-minute bet, which stays “open” for nearly two hours.
The “Dead Ball” Rule
Another important detail is how these goals affect “Over/Under” markets. If a game ends 1-1 after 120 minutes and goes to penalties, the official result for almost all total goal markets is 2. Even if the shootout ends 5-4, those nine extra goals are not added to the tally. This is because, in the official records of FIFA and other governing bodies, a shootout is not part of the scoreline. It is a method of determining progress, not a score-building exercise.
Final Thoughts for the Fan
The next time a big game goes to penalties, remember that your standard ticket has already reached its destination. If the game was tied at the end of regulation or extra time, the result for those markets is a draw.
To avoid disappointment, always look for the “To Qualify” option if you are watching a knockout game. It provides a safety net that covers all possibilities, including the 12 yards of drama that decide who moves on and who goes home.
